May 2026
market update: inflation, rates and property
April ended with Australian shares lower, inflation higher and
markets expecting another RBA rate increase. Together with elevated oil
prices and geopolitical uncertainty, these conditions reinforced the
value of a diversified strategy and sufficient liquidity.
The market picture
at the end of April 2026
The S&P/ASX 200 closed April at approximately 8,666 after eight
consecutive declining sessions. The RBA cash rate was 4.10%, Australian
CPI had risen to 4.6%, Brent crude oil was around US111perbarrelandgoldwasapproximatelyUS4,640
an ounce. The Australian dollar was near US71.5 cents.
Figures of this kind describe a moment in time. They do not, on their
own, provide a reason to change a long-term investment plan.
Inflation
returned to the centre of the discussion
The rise in CPI from 3.7% in February to 4.6% increased expectations
of tighter monetary policy. At the time, markets assigned a 70–80%
probability to a 0.25 percentage-point RBA increase on 5 May.
Higher inflation affects more than interest rates. Elevated fuel
prices can flow into transport, food and other household costs. For
retirees, this makes it useful to compare actual spending with the
income assumptions built into a plan.
International
developments and Australian investors
Oil and the Middle East
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent crude above US$100.
Although a ceasefire had broadly held since early April, diplomatic
progress remained limited. The connection between oil, inflation and
household costs meant the situation remained relevant to Australian
investors.
US rates and valuations
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75%, with four
dissenting votes highlighting internal disagreement over inflation. US
equity valuations had also risen, with the S&P 500 forward
price-to-earnings multiple above 21 times. Strong markets can continue,
but higher valuations generally leave less room for disappointment.
Regional economic security
Japan and Australia were preparing an economic-security agreement
covering energy, rare earths, food and critical commodities. The
agreement aimed to reduce supply-chain vulnerabilities and potentially
broaden demand for Australian exports.
Property is cyclical, not
uniform
Australian housing conditions were notably two-speed. Perth led
quarterly growth above 7%, while Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin also
advanced. Sydney and Melbourne recorded small declines during the March
quarter as affordability, higher rates and rising listings weighed on
demand.
The contrast is a reminder that there is no single Australian
property market. Location, financing, rental yield, tax and the role a
property plays in a broader plan all matter.
The 18.6-year property-cycle
idea
Some researchers describe an approximately 18-to-19-year property
cycle driven by land values, credit availability and sentiment. The
proposed pattern moves from recovery and steady growth through a
mid-cycle correction and later speculative phase.
It is a framework rather than a dependable timing tool. Property
cycles do not remove the need to assess cash flow, debt, diversification
and personal time horizons.
Four practical financial
checks
Review super
contributions before 30 June
The concessional contribution cap for 2025–26 was $30,000. Eligible
people may also have been able to use unused concessional cap amounts
carried forward from earlier years. Contributions need to be received
and processed by the fund before the relevant deadline.
Read more than
the balance on a super statement
Check investment returns net of fees, insurance premiums, employer
contributions and investment-option allocations. Each helps show whether
the account remains aligned with its intended role.
Keep beneficiary
nominations current
Because super does not automatically form part of an estate, a lapsed
or outdated nomination can produce an unintended outcome.
Pause before acting on an
inheritance
An inheritance is generally received tax-free in Australia, but
income subsequently earned on invested funds may be taxable. Before
allocating the money, consider tax, super contribution limits, debt and
the role of the funds in the broader plan.
Cash reserves and measured
decisions
For retirees drawing income, holding several years of expected
payments in cash and defensive assets may reduce the need to sell growth
assets after a market fall. The purpose is not maximum short-term
return; it is to support continuity and decision-making capacity.
If inflation, interest rates or property conditions have changed the
assumptions behind your plan, contact Acquira Wealth Partners for a
considered review of your circumstances.
Important information
This article has been prepared by Acquira Wealth Partners for general
information and educational purposes only. It does not constitute
financial product advice and has not been prepared taking into account
your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any
information, consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances
and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Market
data is approximate and sourced from publicly available information as
at the end of April 2026.
Reine Clemow is an Authorised Representative (No. 461670) of Acquira Wealth / Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd | AFSL 254 544 | ABN 17 005 482 726 | www.gpswealth.com.au | Email Disclaimer Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd, AFSL 254 544, ABN 17 005 482 726.
