August
2026 market update: valuations and retirement structure
Markets entered August near record levels, supported by strong
company profits but carrying high expectations. Interest rates appeared
likely to remain on hold, while property conditions showed early signs
of softening.
These conditions do not point to a single inevitable outcome. They
do, however, reward measured decisions and a clear understanding of what
each part of a portfolio is designed to do.
The market picture on 4
August 2026
The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 9,019.30, approximately 2% below its
February 2026 record. The US S&P 500 was approximately 7,600.50,
near its June record. The RBA cash rate was 4.35%, annual CPI was 3.8%,
gold was around US4, 045anounceandWestTexasIntermediateoilwasnearUS86
per barrel.
All were point-in-time figures rather than predictions.
Strong profits, but less
room for error
The Investment Committee’s “Money on the Move” dial—an internal
14-point measure of how much optimism is embedded in share
prices—remained at 9, classified as expensive.
Company profits were providing genuine support. Expectations for 2026
and 2027 global earnings had been upgraded over the preceding three
months, and Australian earnings expectations had also improved.
At the same time, the Committee considered US and Australian markets
fully valued on its preferred measures, with particular attention on
expensive bank shares. When future growth is already reflected in
prices, markets can be more sensitive to disappointment.
This was a reason for patience and diversification, not a prediction
that a downturn was imminent.
Interest rates and inflation
The end of the fuel-excise rebate added pressure to household costs.
With inflation still above the RBA’s preferred range, a rate cut before
year end appeared unlikely, while another increase looked less probable
than it had several months earlier.
Geopolitical developments remained capable of moving oil and share
prices quickly. Technology and semiconductor companies also continued to
drive both global profit growth and some of the year’s largest
short-term market swings.
Income and growth
assets do different jobs
Income assets—such as term deposits, bonds and some dividend-paying
shares—are intended to provide cash flow along the way. Growth
assets—such as most shares and property—are held mainly for their
potential to increase in value over time.
The distinction matters because growth assets are priced partly on
expectations of future earnings. Their values can move sharply when
those expectations change. Income assets tend to be influenced more by
the payments they produce and prevailing interest rates.
Most portfolios use both. The appropriate balance depends on time
horizon, income needs and capacity to tolerate volatility.
A term-deposit ladder
Splitting cash across staggered maturities—for example, 3, 6, 12 and
24 months—allows portions to become available regularly while retaining
some exposure to longer-term rates. It can support liquidity without
placing all funds at a single maturity date.
Account-based pension
drawdowns
Minimum annual drawdown rates increase with age: 4% for people under
65, 5% from 65–74, 6% from 75–79 and 7% from 80–84, with higher rates
from age 85. Drawing the minimum may help preserve capital, but the
setting still needs to meet actual spending requirements.
Other retirement checks
Review insurance purpose and
cost
Income protection will often become less relevant after work ends,
while life and total and permanent disability cover may still have a
role in estate planning or meeting future costs. Premiums can rise
significantly after age 60, so each policy should be reviewed before it
is retained or cancelled.
Make family intentions
easier to follow
Simple conversations with adult children about the location of
documents, enduring powers of attorney and broad estate intentions can
reduce future confusion without giving up control or disclosing every
financial detail.
Softer property conditions
The source newsletter reported that Gold Coast agents were seeing
price declines of around 10%, while some buyers’ agents observed enquiry
levels down as much as 50% from pre-Budget conditions. These are local
industry observations, not a comprehensive measure of the whole property
market.
For owners, softer conditions are a reason to reassess cash flow and
the property’s role in the portfolio—not necessarily to sell. For
downsizers, a quieter market may provide more negotiating room as a
buyer while also extending the time needed to sell.
Eligible people aged 55 and over may be able to contribute up to
$300,000 each from an eligible home sale into super under the downsizer
rules. Conditions apply.
A patient approach to
expensive markets
The source strategy was to add to cash reserves and pause regular
investment contributions while waiting for better value. That position
reflected the specific portfolios and committee view discussed in the
newsletter; it is not a general instruction for every investor.
More broadly, holding sufficient cash and defensive assets can
prevent short-term volatility from forcing the sale of growth assets. A
well-considered plan should be built around goals and timeframes, not a
need to forecast the next market move.
If market valuations, retirement income or property conditions have
prompted questions about your plan, contact Acquira Wealth Partners for
advice based on your circumstances.
Important information
This article has been prepared by Acquira Wealth Partners for general
information and educational purposes only. It does not constitute
financial product advice and has not been prepared taking into account
your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any
information, consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances
and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Market
data is approximate and sourced from publicly available information as
at August 2026.
Reine Clemow is an Authorised Representative (No. 461670) of Acquira Wealth / Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd | AFSL 254 544 | ABN 17 005 482 726 | www.gpswealth.com.au | Email Disclaimer Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd, AFSL 254 544, ABN 17 005 482 726.
