April
2026 market update: volatility, inflation and retirement planning
Australian markets entered April after a turbulent quarter. The
S&P/ASX 200 was approximately 8% below its February peak, oil prices
had risen sharply and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had returned
to raising interest rates.
For investors, these conditions can feel unsettling. Yet volatility
is a normal feature of long-term investing. The more useful question is
not how to avoid every market decline, but whether your financial
structure gives you the capacity to make considered decisions through
one.
The market picture
at the end of March 2026
At the end of March, the S&P/ASX 200 was around 8,461, compared
with a February peak of approximately 9,203. The RBA cash rate stood at
4.10% after increases in February and March, while annual Australian CPI
was 3.8%, above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
Brent crude oil was trading near US100perbarrelafterbrieflyreachingapproximatelyUS116
in March. Gold was around US$5,200 an ounce and the Australian dollar
was approximately US71.75 cents.
These figures are a snapshot, not a forecast. They show the
combination of inflation, geopolitics and tighter monetary policy that
was influencing markets at the time.
Why oil prices and
interest rates matter
Higher oil prices can
prolong inflation
Conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. The effect
extends beyond the petrol bowser: freight, production and supply-chain
costs can also rise, adding pressure to household budgets and
inflation.
For retirees, the practical issue is whether planned income remains
sufficient as everyday expenses change. For borrowers and property
investors, higher inflation can also influence interest-rate
expectations and financing costs.
The RBA had shifted back
to tightening
The RBA raised the cash rate twice in early 2026, taking it to 4.10%.
At the time of the April update, the four major banks expected another
0.25 percentage-point increase in May.
Higher rates affect mortgage repayments, business borrowing and the
relative appeal of different asset classes. Their impact depends on a
person’s debt, income needs, property exposure and investment
structure.
Global developments worth
watching
Currency and diversification
Discussion continued about the long-term role of the US dollar in
global trade as some nations settled energy transactions in other
currencies and the BRICS group grew in influence. The US dollar remained
the world’s primary reserve currency, but the discussion illustrated why
currency exposure deserves attention within a diversified portfolio.
Asia-Pacific supply chains
Geopolitical tension also placed renewed focus on Taiwan’s
semiconductor industry. Its chips are central to vehicles, smartphones
and artificial-intelligence systems. Any material disruption could
affect technology-heavy portfolios and global supply chains.
Australian property
After a long period of growth, higher interest rates added complexity
to the Australian property cycle. Retirees holding investment property,
as well as people considering downsizing, may need to weigh cash flow,
liquidity, tax and timing rather than treating property as a
single-purpose investment.
Sequence of returns risk
in retirement
Sequence of returns risk is the risk of experiencing poor investment
returns early in retirement while also drawing money from a
portfolio.
Two retirees can earn the same average return over time yet finish
with different outcomes. If one must sell assets after an early market
fall to fund living expenses, fewer assets remain invested for a later
recovery.
How a cash reserve can help
A cash or defensive-asset reserve can allow living expenses to be
funded without selling growth assets during a weak market. Its purpose
is not to predict the bottom. It is to create time and reduce the
likelihood that short-term market conditions dictate long-term
decisions.
The appropriate reserve depends on personal spending, other income
and portfolio design. It should be reviewed as circumstances and costs
change.
Practical retirement checks
Review actual spending
Compare current monthly spending with the amount originally planned.
Healthcare, travel and energy costs can change materially over time, and
an accurate baseline supports better income planning.
Check beneficiary
nominations
Superannuation does not automatically form part of an estate. Review
whether binding nominations remain valid and reflect current wishes.
Revisit property
decisions before acting
Eligible Australians aged 55 and over may be able to contribute up to
$300,000 each from the proceeds of selling an eligible home into super
under the downsizer contribution rules. Conditions and time limits
apply, so advice before a sale is important.
Structure matters more
than headlines
Markets have experienced wars, oil shocks, pandemics and financial
crises before. Recovery timing cannot be known in advance, so a sound
plan should not depend on short-term forecasts being correct.
A clear structure—near-term liquidity, appropriate diversification
and regular review—can help investors respond with discipline rather
than reaction.
If recent market movements or changing living costs have raised
questions about your position, contact Acquira Wealth Partners to
discuss how they relate to your circumstances.
Important information
This article has been prepared by Acquira Wealth Partners for general
information and educational purposes only. It does not constitute
financial product advice and has not been prepared taking into account
your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any
information, consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances
and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Market
data is approximate and sourced from publicly available information as
at the end of March 2026.
Reine Clemow is an Authorised Representative (No. 461670) of Acquira Wealth / Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd | AFSL 254 544 | ABN 17 005 482 726 | www.gpswealth.com.au | Email Disclaimer Acquira Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001319892) of GPS Wealth Ltd, AFSL 254 544, ABN 17 005 482 726.
